Montana Draw Odds 2026

How the Montana draw works

Montana uses a bonus point system. Each year you don't draw, you add a point; when you apply, your points are squared and added to one base chance (points² + 1) as entries in a random draw. So points sharply improve your odds over time, but the draw stays random — a max-point applicant can still miss, and a zero-point applicant can still hit.

Because it's weighted-random rather than a strict queue, odds climb steeply with points but rarely lock to a guaranteed 100% the way a pure preference system does. The numbers here are Montana's actual results at each bonus-point level, by unit and residency.

Residents and nonresidents draw from separate pools, so set your residency first. These are last year's results — demand shifts, so treat them as a strong guide, not a promise.